Economy · Outlook
IMF sees 3.1% global growth as energy and AI reshape the outlook
The October forecast balances technology investment against inflation and borrowing pressures.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, according to its October outlook briefing in Bangkok.
Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro described competing forces behind the forecast. Higher energy and commodity prices are pushing up costs and restraining activity, while investment linked to artificial intelligence is supporting trade and demand.
The fund also identified vulnerabilities behind that resilience. AI supply chains are concentrated in relatively few countries and companies, and weather disruption could add pressure to commodity markets. Higher borrowing costs may leave governments with less room for essential spending or a response to future shocks.
Its policy message was to rebuild fiscal buffers, preserve central-bank independence and target any emergency support at vulnerable households. The growth figures are forecasts, not measured full-year outcomes.
Sources
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